Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
