Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
